Deke's Investment Blog - March 14, 2017

Big market tops are hard to predict and can be deadly. The stock market has gotten this expensive only 2% to 3% of the time in market history. Fed liquidity injection easy money policies are reflected in high real estate values. Real estate has surpassed the old highs and produced extreme values such as ultralow cap rates in the face of widespread lack of affordability and slow growing household incomes. All our major domestic asset markets are now historically expensive. Declines and crashes are inevitable just as night follows day, even though there is scant evidence presently of a crash. There is unperceived vulnerability and at times of seeming widespread prosperity investors can suffer their most devastating and unexpected losses. Market history shows that predictions of continued growth are not reliable. At high prices everything is priced to perfection in an uncertain world. Value investing theory suggests the safest strategy now is to reduce debt, be patient and wait. Avoid buying what is overpriced. Core asset purchases now should be low cost and in a diversified portfolio. Consider selling selected assets to take advantage of historic high prices. Increase cash position.

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