How long can it last? It is likely the current expansion is closer to the end than the beginning. Now eight years and counting it is the third longest since the late 1940s. The average expansion is five years. If it makes it past ten years to 2019 it will set a new record. If it goes eleven years the next recession would begin late 2020 before the next presidential election. Nevertheless analysts say the housing shortage in LA will persist regardless of the business cycle.